Edwards vs. Stewart

Carl Edwards leads Tony Stewart by three points heading into the season finale at Homestead.  This has been the tightest Chase in NASCAR history; part of this has been due to the change made at the beginning of the season to make the point system more simple.  Looking back on that decision, NASCAR may have cost Tony Stewart his third Sprint Cup Championship.  Under the old point standings, Stewart would be up by 9 points over Carl Edwards.  Carl Edwards would have picked up 1440 points during the Chase, while Stewart would have picked up 1449.

Stewart and Edwards race at Phoenix (Photo courtesy Getty Images)

 With the new point system, NASCAR wanted to focus more on winning.  But in fact, the opposite has taken place; it rewards consistency and punishes bad finishes.  So it is ironic that Carl Edwards is up by three points; those three points come from Edwards' win in the regular season.  That win came in Las Vegas, where Stewart dominated before Edwards won.

Points leader Edwards speaks in the Media Center at Phoenix (Photo courtesy Getty Images)

 As is always the case when it comes down to the final race, there are numerous Chase scenarios.  Here are a list of scenarios that may help you better understand what each driver has to do to win the title (Chase scenarios provided by NASCAR.com):

•  If Edwards finishes ahead of Stewart, Edwards wins the championship
• If Stewart wins the race, he wins the championship
• If Stewart ties Edwards, Stewart wins the championship
• If Edwards leads a lap, Stewart needs to finish four spots ahead of him if Stewart doesn't lead a lap
• If Edwards leads the most laps, Stewart needs to finish five spots ahead of him if Stewart doesn't lead a lap
• If Stewart leads a lap, he needs to finish two spots ahead of Edwards if Edwards doesn't lead a lap
• If Stewart leads the most laps, he needs to finish one spot ahead of Edwards if Edwards doesn't lead a lap
• If both Stewart and Edwards lead a lap, Stewart needs to finish three spots ahead of Edwards
• If both Stewart and Edwards lead the most laps, Stewart needs to finish three spots ahead of Edwards
• If Stewart leads the most laps and Edwards leads a lap, Stewart needs to finish two spots ahead of Edwards
• If neither Edwards or Stewart lead a lap, Stewart must finish three spots ahead of Edwards

I'm really excited about the final race of the season.  The Sprint Cup Championship could possibly come down to the final lap at Homestead, and the race is going to be exciting!  I'm going to pick Carl Edwards to win the championship.  He's always on his game at Homestead, and I don't think Tony Stewart will be able to overcome Edwards and his fabulous Homestead performances. 

The title fight is down to Edwards and Stewart (Photo courtesy Getty Images)